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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 652.56-1.5%4:00 PM EST

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To: Roebear who wrote (13368)5/10/1999 12:51:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
>>Now was this negative effect on the gold rally because the uncertainty about market stability (from Russia and LCTM) was relieved or because inflation fears were reduced, or both?<<

I find it hard to believe that it was due to inflation fears being reduced. When the rates were cut last fall, that started the inflation growth IMO. Easy money fuels inflation which is what the rate cut did. Of course the cover story was to fuel the economy that was slowing. Sorry I don't buy that. It was a bail out pure and simple.

Of course inflation has been growing for a long while now but we just cover our eyes and ears and speak no evil. Who would have thought you would pay 40K for a truck in 1990? Commodity prices are much lower due to over production yet you pay the same or higher prices at the supermarket than you did when grains and produce were much higher priced out of the farmer's fields. If the farmer isn't getting paid more and the supermarkets and ADM aren't growing earnings by leaps and bounds then there is a middle man somewhere either stashing hoards of cash in a swiss bank account or the middle men are getting paid more so their parent companies aren't seeing the exponential growth I would expect to see.

PS - since no one else is talking about it, how much was that budget surplus supposed to be this year? Just trying to figure out how much this 15 billion in Kosovo to date plus whatever it costs till the end etc is going to dip into that. <ggg> Not that I ever believed there was a surplus. <ng>

I put more emphasis onweekly candles but there was a hanging man on the TYX Friday and there appears to be a bullish flag forming inthe SPX and OEX as they approach the lower tines of my forks. Based on these formations alone and ignoring China, wars, CPI/PPI data etc, we should start moving up again by Tuesday, Wednesday. There are a lot of tech stocks that need to rally soon or they will be seriously damaged from a technical stand point. Of course the weeklies say more to me than daily charts and the weekly TYX shows a continuation to 5.9-6% very likely. Maybe a dip in the rate then push back up? Who knows?

Good Luck,

Lee

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