Hello John: Your post reveals the many profit streams for this company. I have created a basic spreadsheet for the next three years based on current expected sales that have been announced in the last six months. When I learned that Bill was not focusing on selling processors in the US, I have to admit, it threw me for a loss and I stopped. Zeev has taken a very good stab at running out potential numbers of sales of processors to handle the waste oil problem. (Posts 1849, 1872, 2030 and 2078)
It is beyond my capability, based on current published information to place a valuation on this company via your Step 2 (vertical integration), or by Step 3 (oil collector roll-up). The basic problem that I run into is that Bill does not want to sell processors in the US. He wants to convert businesses and either partially or wholly own the processors. That requires self-financing the scope of which I do not have the skill and sophistication to compute. It also requires us to place a valuation figure on an industry that, like Huizenga's first love, trash hauling, is largely family owned and decentralized.
By nature of your unique position, you may be the only person on this planet other than Bill who can intelligently assess this company from the perspective of Step 2 & 3. How do you value the domestic waste oil industry? How do you finance the purchase of such? Can you do it the way Mr. Huizenga did it, by building a powerhouse stock that became the primary form of exchange? Or is Bill going to do it by selling more shares, by using profits based on foreign sales, by getting government grants, who knows? These are all rhetorical questions. What is scary is that I bet you have answers to most of them.<<vbg>>
BTW, why not add another one to your list. Let's call it the GRNO Four on the Floor plan for world domination. Instead of selling processors outright to foreign companies, why doesn't Bill apply the same business plan to high density foreign markets such as West Germany, Japan, China, Mexico etc.? Now let me run the numbers by you on that...
The truth is, it would take half a dozen MBAs a couple of weeks to work out the potential and the financing strategy for this company's future. There is much more than meets the eye with this company. Is it a mini-Republic? IMHO, it sure is.
Finally, if I correctly read Spencer's recent protestations, our attempts to come up with earnings for this company are misleading other investors with hypothetical what-if scenarios. Me thinketh, we are in a Catch 22.
Thanks for watching this thread and tossing in your real world experience. It is much appreciated.
marty |
