Gold, Inflation and the Internet
(in part)
When the internet stocks eventually crash, the drop in their share prices will be spectacular. With minimal short interest in these stocks there will be no 'short cover' buying on the way down to moderate the fall. However, when this crash does occur (perhaps following one last surge to the upside) it will not be the end of the internet stock boom, it will be the end of the beginning. There will still be fortunes to be made in the internet stocks for decades to come, although individual stock selection will be critical (the indiscriminate buying of anything with a 'dot com' in its name will no longer be an effective strategy).
In conclusion, the unquestioned financial wisdom of the moment is that gold, as an investment, is dead. We are told ad nauseam that there is no inflation and that stocks, if bought with a long term perspective, still represent the best investment choice. However, the unquestioned wisdom of one investment cycle is always seriously questioned at the beginning of the next cycle, before being totally discarded. In this writer's opinion, the next cycle will be characterised by a resurgence of gold and gold stocks, and a continuation of the internet stock boom (although starting from much lower levels and with a far greater emphasis on stock selection).
Milhouse
Hong Kong
7 May 1999
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