I am bullish on oil price, although IMHO, my observations may be biased.
The reasons for my bullish views are:
Last October Asian Flu is very much over, that kind of disinflation thread is naturally gone.
Asian countries are in good recovery, demand for oil will increaded accordingly.
OPEC cut production as today's news indicated they did indeed follow their last policy.
Kosov War, NATO depleted lots supply in that country.
US long term interest rate broke that %5.75 decisively decisively despite that last FRiday unemplyment rate at slow pace $4.3% from that 4.2% last reported, Non-payroll created 234,000 new job not as many as 300,000-350,000 as market feared, yet t30 hit new hi of %5.84 indicating that inflation thread due to commodity prices especially oil and energy cost. t30 foresaw that oil may be int that $20.00 or might hit new hi of that $27.00.
Right noe June contract hit that $19.00 then retraced a bit, but long term as t30 saw it, also, demand will increase and supply reduce.
Once oil price cracks that $19.00 then here $20.... then... IMHO.
It appears that long term interest rate saw something that most people did not for some reason.
Also gold down near $10.00 due to Bank of England wants to sell gold, but CRB still hang in above that 191.
Go figure.
As I said, my observation maybe biased.
JP
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