Granted that the "babe in the family of of the world's civilizations" often acts like a spoiled brat, it is this brat's economic resilience that drives the world's investment system. As chaotic as the international political outlook appears sometimes to be, the Dow gained 40% in WWII and was up is just about every post-depression military 'misadventure' (if you choose to call it that) you can find.
The point I have is that your arguments are irrelevant for prediction of market behavior -- just so long as the fighting doesn't take place on U.S. soil. If we do have significant biological, chemical, or nuclear terrorism in the U.S., the stock market would probably be the last of our worries.
Somehow, Terrence, I do not find doom-and-gloom scenarios appropriate to the psychology of today's market. Every correction for the past several years have been a glorious buying opportunity. We have survived the Far East financial collapse, the Brazilian and Russian devaluations, the Persian Gulf incidents, and the impeachment of the President. An event that would be more damaging than an alliance of Russia, China, and India would be an increase in the U.S. interest rate by the Fed.
We will roll onward without a sudden '2 times 1929' cataclysm. Over and out. |
