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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel?
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To: Benny Baga who wrote (5411)5/10/1999 4:32:00 PM
From: Brad Bell  Read Replies (1) of 20297
 
>>My reasoning is that the early adopters are also Quicken and MSMoney users, and they like their PFM software very much, and won't be inclined to move very easily. What would be the incentive? Savings could be one, but Convenience is worth something.

My concern is that because the PC-based subscriber growth is starting from a much larger base, even though it is much smaller percentage-wise than internet-based subscriber growth, it still accounts for a significant fraction of the overall growth.

Personally, I've never used the PC-based interface, but there is no problem using PFM software and an internet-based interface (unless your financial institution doesn't support the internet-based interface, but that is becoming less & less of a problem). For example, I find that the internet-based one-step-update feature of Quicken 99 is exceedingly convenient for those accounts which support it.

I agree that the cannibalization rate is difficult to estimate, but I think it could be significant, and a factor to consider when projecting growth rates. Longer term, new internet-based subscriber growth will overwhelm such considerations, but I like to be on the conservative side. Maybe this is another question worth posing to Pete & co.

Anyway, thanks for all the good work.
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