Since the point I made earlier does not seem to sink in,
let me make it another way. The MMDS spectrum
purchased by WCOM and FON is a unique property. There is no
other 200MHz block of frequencies available in the same
low frequency range.
Similarly, the LMDS block purchase made by NXLK had another
unique feature, it was a huge 1+ GHz chunk of aggregated spectrum.
In contrast, ARTT's spectrum holdings are not unique at all. They can
be duplicated easily by going to the 39GHz auction and
purchasing about 2 of the 16 licenses available in each BTA.
Just look at the dynamics of the LMDS auction last year, and
the reauction this year, and it is clear that being successful in
getting 2 out of 16 licenses in each market at a very reasonable
price is quite achievable.
Finally, while CWSS and ATEL got bought out at good prices, if
you interview all the former CAI Wireless shareholders, they
will tell you they got ''extinguished,'' i.e. wiped out. Only
the bond holders and management got to split the spoils of
the WCOM purchase. So, ARTT dead would be worth little to its
current shareholders. In fact, the entire wireless sector is far
more dangerous to investors than the current enthusiasm
suggests. It is a sector where you can just as easily be
wiped out as you can make money.
I hope you will all make money, since I view many of the
longs as friends, but there are good reasons to remain
cautious. |
