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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: LordDarley who wrote (2252)3/7/1997 11:13:00 AM
From: John Howell   of 13594
 
Darley....There is a lot of emotion among AOL bears, but perhaps for good reason.

The long play on AOL is based on ancillary income. The more AOL dominates the market, the more profit they make. The problem with the long play (and I think that this is something that most AOL bears understand) is that in another 12 - 18 months AOL will be technically obsolescent. This will occur at a time when new usage is declining and the "online" public is demanding sophisticated services requiring huge bandwidth. AOL will always be a bulletin board. I think that the bears are ahead of the street on this stock, and the frustration comes from the willingness of the herd to accept the premise that AOL will always be a player. When discussing AOL, I've never heard anyone from the street talk about anything but market share and revenue sources. They seem to assume that the technology is static, which is to me, incredibly short sighted.

For the record.

Short 500 at 43 3/4
5 blocks April 50 calls
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