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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 223.95+1.7%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (30045)5/10/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Gottfried: I agree with the notion that AMAT's quarterly performance has been priced into the stock at this point. BUT this is really not the issue in my mind. After all, the "blowout" quarter speculation has been around at least since the annual meeting and analyst meeting at the beginning of April when the stock spiked up to $68 per share. So the "blowout" numbers (1.3b plus eps > .30) were in the stock price more or less then as they are now irrespective of when the analysts filed their reports or when some on the thread may have finally figured it all out. Thus, the real issue in my mind is what has been taken out of the price of AMAT since that time. I believe the answer is (1) "outlook" (DRAM concerns) and (2) valuation excess as pressured by the long bond spike.

Also, I do not see AMAT in a downtrend since the beginning of this year. Big mo moved this stock on four consecutive days in early January from $44.25 to $55 1/2. And from that point we have moved sideways measured up until today. I view all that bloated price movement from January to the end of April as momentum driven noise and not the mark of a long term top.

I also see that AMAT has been in an uptrend for the past seven days.

And I would caution those who are reading so much into today's price action. It was the lowest daily volume for AMAT year to date.
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