Tim,
I see you are another Stratfor "fan". They make for a good read and an interesting analysis.
I was first acquainted with them through an individual I knew in the service who went to work for them several years ago (though I don't keep in contact). That have a knack for cutting to the chase, even though I don't always totally agree with them.
And they are right on with their analysis on the Chinese situation. However, they have ommitted the economic side of the equation wherein they have to be careful just how far they take their indignation over the bombing. Let it get out of hand and there will be an even greater reaction from the White House and Capital Hill regarding the espionage issue.
The truth is that China and Asia need the US more than we need them (but not by much). China is facing high unemployment (rumoured at 10%), and declining economic growth.
Futhermore, China faces a severe demographic disarticulation due to their one-child policy. They are facing increasing numbers of elderly being supported by decreasing numbers of young people, far more than is the case anywhere else in the world.
They also face Islamic fundamentalist disturbances in there western provinces and the ever present Tibetan issue. In addition, China is not nearly as homogenous as most people would believe. While they share the same written language, verbal dialects differ greatly in each province.
Btw, have you read Stratfor's analysis of Japan??
stratfor.com
It does not bode well for Tokyo, or the rest of Asia that depends on its economy.
Regards,
Ron |
