As for earnings growth , it has been stated numerous times in all the financial rags and numerous exellent links to the data have been posted here over the last few months.
As to the PC sector, maybe I was too vague in my slowdown comment. I will even admit that PC sales are up but ASPs (After sales profits) have deteriorated and are accelerating the decline in that area. IBMs strong results were services, IT, smoke and mirrors through stock buybacks etc. They admitted to losing billions in PC sales and are trying to get out of that area now. Note the DELL announcement where they are going to just become resellers. While I still trade DELL short term, even they are looking to lower priced PCs after stating that they would not enter that market. Regardless, this discussion would be better on a PC board etc.
Anyway, TO ALL my charts are finally updated at the MDA site, my private site and the mirror site, ... I hope. It is getting a little confusing trying to keep all these transfers straight <ggg>
On the daily stock charts, there were numerous bullish signs. MACDs and stochastics turning up after reaching buy levels. There were numerous bullish flags, consolidation patterns and bounces off of support lines and fork tines although my scans again for the third day in a row turned up no over sold issues from my data base. The weekly charts do not look as bullish so I may be early or there could still be a head fake. AS bullish as many of these looked onthe dailycharts, there was also a definite lack of leadership except for a few internets like AOL, SFE etc. DELL got an upgrade today and was only able to get a slight pop that didn't get it over resistance. MSFT again failed to show much strength nor did GE.
On the sector charts, the BTK made a bullish break up but the DRG and HCX are looking very very sick. The XAL is breaking down out of the wedge that was forming and I expect it to act like the dollar chart soon and probably worses if oil jumps up out of this brief consolidation it is going through. The PNX made a nice fake upwards last week then reversed hard down today prompting me to put the big question mark onthe chart since it is now hanging onto both the upward and downward fork by a smidge. I am still getting numerous sector index sell signals onthe weekly charts and especially the GAX And XNG are looking promising with others like the trannies etc. The Latinindex is flagging sell along with an extremely over bought Mexican index but with the rate cut today, the hope of further rate cuts by other countries inthe region may keep it that way for a while longer. Of the most interest to me is the Japanese index over bought signals as it approaches that dropping resistance line. It should reachdo or die time here in the next week or two. The Bond on my TYX chart dropped slightly whichwas timely onmy class 2 sell which is the opposite of Don's reaction. Myontime signals are usually mild and the signal has already cancelled on today's pullback. I fear that the bond may continue downdriving rates back up around 5.9-6% inthe coming weeks.
All the technicals aside, I believe that the CPI/PPI index news, CSCO and WMT earnings tomorrow and the bonds reaction to the price index news will move this market one way or the other. While some are looking for a crash, like I said when we were finishing the rally a while back about how rallies don't start with the indicators high, I also believe a crash will have problems happening here now that the indicators are now so low at least in most of the techs and prior leaders I track. Therefore if the CPI data is bad, after the brief pullback, I expect more of a steady slide down until the market can find a spark to provide a bounce. DELL earnings or the collectionof splits arounf the end of the month?
Good Luck, Futures down slightly right now but I haven't had a chance to check Gershes trigger numbers yet. According to my forks on the SPX, we should get a pop here tomorrow or else we are in trouble.
Wang Wei, not trying to pick a fight, I just don't believe that we are beginning a new era here. Instead I think we are beating a dead horse with cheap printed money while hoping to find a cure for death and decay. When DOW chemical now has a PE like a tech stock did a couple years ago, something is wrong.
Lee |
