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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments

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To: Mr. Pink who wrote (8396)5/11/1999 6:10:00 AM
From: Puck  Read Replies (1) of 18998
 
Proposition: CLCI short; LIPO long

CLCI seems to me to be 2T/3T in potential. After they announced the preliminary details of their contract with the Metropolitan Water Dist. of S. CA early last year I made a number of revenue models based upon all reasonable and unreasonable possibilities I could think of, and the most optimistic of my forecasts didn't come close to providing any reasonable quantitative basis for its $350 mil. market cap.. Additionally, the CEO's sinful compensation for running a longtime money losing operation (on top of his oversize, multi-million dollar bonus for completing the Sun World merger), the mysterious, undisclosed sources of his funding for the Sun World acquisition two years ago, and his use of warrants to entice European banks to provide credit lines makes me wonder about the integrity of the operation. This co. seems to me to be a little more than thin air but not much. Why has the stock price remained as resilient as it has? Where is the buying pressure coming from? CLCI doesn't even own the water it claims as a product. It just taps into an underground reservoir that is public property, which everyone has a right to do. Am I missing something? Any thoughts?

Consider LIPO as a long based on the strength of Evacet as a probable FDA approval in Sept. now that the results of its multiple phase three trials are known and its existence as only the sixth profitable (and rapidly growing in profitability) biotech. co.. Ignored by the street since mid-1997 when its previous phase three candidate bombed in clinical trials until Hambrecht & Quist and then Pru. Sec's came out with buy rec's during the winter.
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