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Gold/Mining/Energy : Newmont Mining(NEM) & Newmont Gold(NGC)

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To: Roebear who wrote (146)5/11/1999 10:28:00 AM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (1) of 587
 
Just guessed. Why was that good? It lasted 19 years. It wasn't insightful or courageous. Do you call admitting 2 + 2 = 4 courageous?

Definitely bullish on oil. It's worth $30/bbl. The long term outlook on oil is bearish, but is bullish on natural gas for the next 15 years. How long before the the major down trend resumes depends upon how fast the price rises to its fair value of $30. Texaco said in 1980 oil was worth $15. Prices for almost everything since then have doubled regardless of the widespread belief in deflation, o it is fair to assume oil is worth twice $15.

There has been no deflation, only disinflation, a marked slowing in the inflationary rate which got down to almost zero in the early '90s. Then FED went back to interest rate targeting. That alone reverses the long term expectations in oil and gold. We will have a replay of 1980 and then the structural down trend will resume. Again, when depends on how rapidly these rise back up.
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