New York--May 11--NYMEX crude and product futures are seen opening lower in
technical pullback following Monday's late rally, which boosted crude prices 15
cents to an eventual gain of 28c. Brokers said they would be focussing on
American Petroleum Institute data released this afternoon, which are expected to
show a rise in crude stockpiles last week.
* * *
NYMEX Jun crude ended the overnight Access session down 17c at $18.33. Jun
heating oil ended down 21 points at 43.65c, while Jun gasoline ended down 7
points at 53.90c.
In the absence of fresh news, several brokers and traders said the market's
direction is difficult to predict today.
"It's technically in no-man's land," one trader said. "The funds are trying
to defend their positions and could rally this (market) up."
Another broker said that, "today could be a repeat of yesterday."
"It could open weaker in the morning and turn around in the afternoon," a
broker said. "The funds will rally it right back up to cover their positions."
Brokers said they are awaiting the release of API data due out after 1600 ET
today to give the market direction.
US crude inventories are expected to have increased 1.0-2.0 million barrels
last week, several brokers and analysts said.
Stockpiles of gasoline are expected to have risen 1.5-2.5 million barrels
last week, while distillates--which include heating oil and diesel fuel--are
anticipated to have increased 1.0-2.0 million barrels. Refinery runs are
expected to have dropped 0.5-1.0 percentage points.
"The APIs are looking kind of negative and we're at this pivotal
$18.00-$19.00 range," a trader said. "A bearish or bullish API could send us
breaking out either way."
Jun crude's critical support level is at $18.00, while resistance is at
$18.55-$18.60.
Meanwhile, the market continues to closely watch the conflict in Kosovo.
Today NATO planes targeted the industrial zone in the southern Serbian town of
Nis in a daylight raid and the Serbian media reported many injured and possible
deaths.
Also, NATO denied seeing any evidence so far of a withdrawal of Yugoslav
forces from Kosovo, as reported by the Tanjug news agency Monday.
UPCOMING:
--Jun crude options expire May 17. Jun crude futures expire May 20.
--Jun product options expire May 25, while Jun product futures expire May 28.
--API data reports 1600 ET Tuesday, while the US Department of Energy reports
after 0900 ET Wednesday.
|
