Re: DSL Providers and Equipment Companies
Darren/Frank/Doug/Bernard/Thread,
All our discussions in the past concerning DSL service rollouts has been very enlightening, as have your most recent comments. But IMHO, much as I can hardly believe it, DSL Services are here and now. No matter who rolls them out (I didn't even include the substantial AT&T announcement), it really does not matter to me. I'm taking what time I have, to try to lock down some investment ideas. Here's my current watch list in two main groups:
DSL Providers
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Comdisco (CDO)
Copper Mountain (IPO soon)
Covad (COVD)
DSL Net (IPO soon)
Dakota Services (IPO soon)
Harvard Net (IPO soon)
Network Access Solution (IPO soon)
Northpoint (NPNT)
Rhythms (RTHM)
Time Warner Telecom (IPO soon)
DSL Equipment
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Adtran (ADTN)
Alcatel (ALA)
Aware (AWRE)
Pairgain (PAIR)
Paradyne (IPO soon)
Tuts Sytems (TUTS)
Westell (WSTL)
As I am taking my time learning about all of the companies above, I almost feel like throwing darts. If I had done that in January, I would be up 40%YTD in either sector! So I'm eagerly trying to figure out which one(s) have the most potential from here on out. It is not an easy task (Or maybe I should throw darts now<G>).
I just do not know how to evaluate the DSL Providers. It's a mystery to me how much they are going to be worth in the future to the ILEC's? I'm assuming that would be the main goal of any of them. To be bought out by an ILEC (or maybe even a long distance company if FCC approved it). But if the ILECs really get their rollouts going, then would they just build their own DSL networks? Would the DSL Providers network be compatible with the ILEC's? etc., etc.
As for the equipment companies, I'm somewhat lost there too. The only one I had any time to look into, so far, is Adtran. From a cursory review, it appears they have everything a DSL rollout needs. Almost too much because a lot of their stuff is legacy. They have been around a very long time(in tech time). It also seems they are betting a lot on HDSL2. What is HDSL2 and how important is it going to be for higher bandwidth speeds? I'm assuming that this is the goal of HDSL2 standards?
The rest of the equipment companies on my list, I have not looked into with any detail. But one thing I noticed, there are more DSL Modem Makers than you can shake a stick at. So I'm can't believe this won't rapidly become a commodity business.
I know I threw out a lot of names, etc. above. But if anyone has anything to offer on any of the above or any new investment, ideas, companies, comments, opinions, it would be much appreciated.
MikeM(From Florida) |
