Some data from the prospectuses of NPNT, COVD and RTHM:
Market size:
"Forrester Research projects that the total market for data networking services and Internet access will
grow from $6.2 billion in 1997 to approximately $49.7 billion by 2002, of which approximately $27.9 billion
will be generated from services to businesses."
Subscribers:
I could find no projections for subscribers. A typical proxy cited was along the lines of,
"According to International Data Corporation, or IDC, there were 26 million residences with computers in their
home offices in the U.S. in 1998, growing to an estimated 39.2 million by 2002."
Speeds:
COVAD
Speed To Speed From Range*
Service End-User End-User (feet) Market/Usage
------- -------- ---------- ------ ------------------------------------
<S> <C> <C> <C> <C>
TeleSpeed 144........... 144 Kbps 144 Kbps 35,000 ISDN replacement, non-standard lines
TeleSpeed 192........... 192 Kbps 192 Kbps 18,000 RLAN, business Internet
TeleSpeed 384........... 384 Kbps 384 Kbps 18,000 RLAN, business Internet
TeleSpeed 768........... 768 Kbps 768 Kbps 13,500 Business Internet
TeleSpeed 1.1........... 1.1 Mbps 1.1 Mbps 12,000 Business Internet
TeleSpeed 1.5........... 1.5 Mbps 384 Kbps 15,000 High-speed Web access
</TABLE>
- --------
* Estimated maximum distance from the end-user to the central office.
NORTHPOINT
Speed Wholesale Maximum
Speed to From End Price Range
Service End user user $/mo. (feet) Use/Market
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<C> <C> <C> <C> <C> <S>
NorthPoint DSL 144 144 kbps 144 kbps 75 35,000 . ubiquitous flat-rate
service at speeds
comparable to
integrated services
digital network (ISDN)
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NorthPoint DSL 160 160 kbps 160 kbps 75 24,000 . always on e-mail and
web browsing solution
for individuals
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NorthPoint DSL 200 200 kbps 200 kbps 90 22,850 . small businesses of
less than four
employees with
standard
e-mail and web usage
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NorthPoint DSL 416 416 kbps 416 kbps 125 18,000 . e-mail and higher
bandwidth Internet
solution for small
businesses with less
than 10 employees
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NorthPoint DSL 784 784 kbps 784 kbps 165 13,500 . remote local area
network access, web
surfing for businesses
under 25 employees
. supports high-
bandwidth intensive e-
commerce and video-
conferencing
applications
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NorthPoint DSL 1.04 1.04 Mbps 1.04 Mbps 199 12,350 . remote local area
network access, web
surfing for businesses
. supports large file
transfers and web
hosting
- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NorthPoint DSL T1 1.54 Mbps 1.54 Mbps 250 10,000 . T1 performance
. pricing not distance-
sensitive
Implications:
So what does this mean to the ILECs? Will it be worth something to them? Absolutely, as they start to lose
a large portion of their small to medium-sized business customers to these data CLECs. Will it be easier/cheaper
for the ILECs to buy up the CLECs rather than duplicate these efforts in-house? That remains to be seen.
Comments anyone? |
