Art,
Thanks....I suppose. That's certainly one way to make money. Still just one of many.
You would have made much, much more if you had followed the following tracks at the same time:
1) Fundamental Analysis - AXC retreated from TV...transitioned to mass storage/instrumentation....and focused on using components of its its technology to particpate in larger markets. If you noticed, fundamental information is most accessible and is the most widely used currency on these boards.
2) The process of converting debt to equity - several stages in the restructuring process called for the exchange of debt for equity. Start from the early 1996 $30.0 million zeros and figure out how the equity that was exchanged and the warrants that were exercised and outstanding in that time frame help to fuel AXC's rapid mid-96 rise and fall. If you were up to speed on the fundamental picture, specifically the time-to-market of KM, you would have been able to figure out the premature nature of those moves. Work your way backwards from there and figure out how you would have "played" those other opportunities. For ease of reference, there was an exchange in 1994 and another one in 1995. Follow the paper.
3) Technical Analysis - now we're talking your exclusive lingo here.
Using your accumulated skills you would have been able to play the long and short aspects of the opportunities presented by the restructuring process which was ongoing at the same time as the fundamental picture was improving. As Brian Benton indicated, your returns would have depended on how willing you would have been to pyramid up and down. As you know, your appetite for risk is a variable here.
Don't take my word for it. Believe your lying eyes! Do the numbers, your way and then this way, and then choose a number from 1 to 5. Use that number as a factor to multiply your actual returns, and I submit, Art, that the return from using this kind of hybrid investing for a stock like Ampex dwarfs the returns from the conventional type of daytrading heavily biased towards TA that you are advocating, even with the help of the factor!
Something to think about.
Have a good weekend.
Gus
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