RTev, Re: Political climate.
I believe the fact that MSFT is the top holding in S and P index funds makes people pro-Microsoft. A SMALL part of the reason for the strong public support has to do with the increase in mutual fund investing this decade. The index funds continue to become more and more popular as well. (another reason of course is hatred of big government) Even people who don't invest in retirement funds, may have pension funds which may also be getting away from managed funds to index funds.
What does all this mean? If I am Joe Average reading my mutual fund statement and see MSFT as the top holding, I will have a positive opinion of the company. I understand this may not work on everyone but many borderline persons can be swayed. Most people don't really have opinions in such matters unless they have a vested interest!!
They may not even realize that MSFT may only make up a small percentage of an index fund. However, when one sees it as the top holding, it gets noticed by the mutual fund investor. That is why I believe the MSFT leap over GE last fall is going to be a factor as this case unfolds.
The next thing to consider (if necessary) is jump to the NYSE. Then it also gets into DOW index funds (i don't know how the companies get weighted). Then if MSFT goes down, it puts a downward pressure on the market, making the public a little worried...... ready to blame someone for possibly causing a major market correction. I bet the DOJ/States would be near the top of the list. Some people not be getting re-elected. What will a politician do facing the possibility of such a scenario? Everything to avoid it and do nothing that will rock the boat!!
I still think the New York state attorney Vaco lost the election because of his anti-MSFT stance. Even if less than 1 percent voted based upon their mutual fund, it would have cost him the election and probably did. AG elections are only likely to attract middle to upper class voters (I could be wrong) and these are the ones who have mutual fund investments! I got away from watching baseball and hockey and started on the market----I believe this is also a trend. The market is very exciting---like being in Vegas but with better odds.
I don't think the AGs are interested in getting lots of money like they did from tobacco. It was in their interest to go after them because it meant public support. It was way to get re-elected. Going after MSFT is a bit too risky for them. Politicians don't like risk.
As you stated: Despite the trial, Microsoft still seems to be a popular company with the public. A state attorney general running for office would have a difficult time justifying the same kinds of company-destroying tactics used in the tobacco talks. Rather than crowing about the huge damages, an AG will want to be able to say something like, "We have opened the competitive landscape so that the consumer will have greater choice in the future, and so that our local XYZ Tech Co. will have an equal chance to compete. This trial resulted in a great win for the people, the workers, and the businesses of our great state." In answer the a question about the effect of the trial on MSFT stockholders, the AG will want to be able to reasonably say, "We believe this is a great win for Microsoft stockholders because the company will grow and prosper as it competes in a fair and open market."
I would add that would be a great way to get re-elected--especially if MSFT stock is not hurt.
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