With its existing 18MM subscribers, AOL owns the market channel, with AOL TV
being added into the ball game, it will quickly expand its market with its existing 18 MM subscribers, so , Microsoft may run the risk of losing the CE war to Orcle who is one of the partners of AOL TV and will provide the OS software powered by the processor from NSM ---> the Network computers. So, AOL is using its leverage in
internet service, i.e the huge base of subscribers , and quickly penetrate into the AOL TV market , and the final goal is build a network computer market and dominate it.
Unfortunately , Microsoft's MSN did not have such huge customer base , and Microsoft did not know how to make the best use of it strategically. I have said long ao that Microsoft should invest its 5B in AOL , not T.
More PDA strategy will be announced by AOL in the coming weeks, with wireless service from Hughes, and AOL TV + Network Computers as the platforms, AOL
May dominate the PDA related business as well.
All these will hurt Microsoft's base line business, i.e desktop OS and CE, and as Orcl
dominate the OS for PDA and net computer, Microsoft will eventually lose all its
business in application softwares, because people will use PDA and Network computers all the time, and Microsoft does not dominate that market.
Of course, if Microsoft can quickly expand its MSN business or buy out AOL, the the whole picture will change, otherwise , I see Microsoft in big crisis in the near future
in the consumer market . |
