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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 78.02

+0.8%

11:37 AM EST

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To: James A. Shankland who wrote (25486)	5/12/1999 5:41:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) of 77400

James, That's one of the best posts I read lately, and I also liked Uncle Frank's response to it. I have one other factor that should diminish growth expectations and that's the market growth. CSCO showed only 25% sales growth in the US from 1997 to 1998. The sales growth in Europe was tremendous (475%)and changed the overall picture, but that kind of growth is not sustainable, and IMO sales growth would eventually decline to 25% overall. Under such conditions a P/E of 40 is fair enough, which will translate next year to a pre-split price of $80-$85. So MO-MO aside, the current price is therefore 80%-100% overvalued IMHO. ATG

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