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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 78.46+0.6%1:52 PM EST
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To: Mr.Fun who wrote (25585)5/12/1999 7:38:00 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie   of 77399
 
Mr. Fun,
You bring up a very important point about the non-technology issues that will influence the deployment/non-deployment decision of the perfect network in CSCOtopia. Of these, PBX leases and depreciation are a very common factor. LU especially is exploiting this by offering obscene deals on 5 year leases. A great tactic and one that I have had to deal with on more than one occasion.

Though it is safe to say that I am an extreme CSCO bull, I have the utmost respect for LU as well as the darkhorse NT. And I certainly don't underestimate their ability to compete in this market. LU especially has effectively focused on the concerns that the potential customer base would have with the "New World" networking approach.

If you buy into the whole Geoffrey Moore approach to the world of business, CSCO's approach might make some sense. The early adopters would like the differentiation between "New World" and "Old World". A cutting edge solution that doesn't exactly mimic the traditional solution, but provides a promise of cool stuff, is desirable. But to really become a gorilla or enter the tornado or whatever, CSCO needs to provide a complete solution that offers everything that a traditional voice/circuit switch network would provide and more. Moreover, the customers have to believe that there is no risk in implementing such a network. I see the perception problem to be bigger than the actual technological solution.

Of course I believe that CSCO will get there, but not without having to hop over a few obstacles and deal with some very competent competition.

JXM
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