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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Ruffian who wrote (1908)5/12/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
CDMA Tornado Update

QUARTERLY CDMA SUBSCRIBER DATA
Dec '97: Previous qtr: 4,255,000 + added 3,550,000 = 7,805,000 Total (83% sequential growth)
Mar '98: Previous 7,805,000 + added 1,425,000 = 9,230,000 Total (18% sequential growth)
Jun '98: Previous 9,230,000 + added 2,905,000 = 12,135,000 Total
(32% sequential growth)
Sep '98: Previous 12,135,000 + added 3,870,000 = 16,005,000 Total (32% sequential growth)
Dec '98: Previous 16,005,000 + added 7,000,000 = 23,005,000 Total (44% sequential growth) (195% annual growth)
Mar '99: Previous 23,005,000 + added 5,500,000 = 28,505,000 Total (24% sequential growth) (209% annual growth)

Are you disappointed that the sequential growth in the quarter ending in March is a much lower growth rate? Not me. It came off the previous quarter which had a whopping 44% sequential growth. And the annual growth is a 209% increase. (More about that below.)

Notice that Q1 of the previous year also showed slower growth. Will this become a seasonal trend?

"The CDMA Development Group (CDG) today announced that worldwide cdmaOne(TM) subscribers reached almost 30 million, totaling 28.5 million at the end of March 1999, a one-year increase of 309 percent. Rapid growth of the technology is occurring in every
world region as operators have added more than 19 million subscribers since March 1998. Within the last year, cdmaOne subscriber numbers in North America alone grew by 440 percent, increasing 6.8 million."

Well, those numbers aren't right but the gist is the same. The one-year increase from 9,230,000 subscribers to 28,505,000 is a 209% increase, not 309%. If the same mistake was made reagarding the North American growth, it is 340%, not 440%, though I haven't verified the numbers.

--Mike Buckley
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