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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1506)5/13/1999 10:21:00 AM
From: Sam  Read Replies (1) of 3536
 
Henry,
<<A weaker dollar will have an almost immediate impact on their competitiveness and severely crimp their recoveries. The question then would be how deep the correction in US markets had been; very deep and severe psychological damage would probably fold out into a harsher long term correction, a shallow correction and the US markets will probably regain some safe haven status as foreign markets slow.>>
I'm not sure what you mean by a "deep" correction. The world needs the US as much as or more than the US needs the world. They can't afford for this country to have such a deep correction that buying power is diminished too much. That will create a nasty spiral. We are the most enthusiastic consumers in the world, a cultural talent that is often publicly derided but implicitly appreciated, and can't be developed by governmental fiat. Even if they "hate" us, they will grit their teeth and send their money here if equity values get too low because they have to. In the end, that may make any correction that may occur wiull be less severe than the one that Japan has experienced since '89. At least, as long as governmental "action" doesn't muck up the equilibriating forces that you so often and eloquently refer to in your wonderful posts to this and other threads.

s.
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