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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 437.82

+5.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: DJBEINO who wrote (45773)	5/13/1999 10:22:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) of 53903

DJ, He instructed analysts to ''do the math'' P=225.5 Trailing EPS=7.08 99Q3(E)=1.74 99Q4(E)=1.74 Rolling EPS=7.50 FY99E=7.73 FY00E=8.78 LTg=11.7% rolling PE=30.06 PE1=29.55 PE2=25.68 rolling PEG=2.57 recently hit: 5-year high Book Value/share 5-year high CF/share 5-year high PSR That's for starters. I guess we'll have to choose whether we want to do a relative valuation or attempt a valuation using something like a 2-stage FCFE model......wait a second...why are analysts (we're all our own analysts) being instructed to "do the math"? ...He instructed analysts to ''do the math'' to see that revenue growth of at least 10 percent was within IBM's grasp,... Well, that's interesting. IBM's CEO's is instructing analysts to "'do the math' to see that revenue growth of at least 10% is within their grasp", but when you look at the long-term growth rates these analysts are estimating it's: 11.7% [SOURCE: Zack's via Yahoo] 12.4% [SOURCE: IBES via Quicken] 13.0% [SOURCE: First Call via Baseline] Sure they're earnings rates, but it makes you wonder. As far as IBM and DRAM, top level - obviously it's good that another competitor is leaving. But on another level, what kind of long-term threat was IBM to MU in DRAMs? Was it an operational/production threat or a technological threat? Which threat was/is greater and which threat looks like it's going to be eliminated? Carl Johnson uses the terms "architects" and "carpenters" to distinguish between those firms which drive the technology and influence utilization and those that nail the stuff together based on some else's blueprint (http://www.infras.com/samples.htm). What's he's talking about goes a lot deeper, but I guess my question is whether IBM is saying it's just no longer willing to play the "carpenter" role or whether it's also bagging any "architect" role as well. IHMO, it would be ridiculous for IBM not to continue development efforts in DRAM and I'm not sure they're saying that. Good trading, Tom

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