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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1506)	5/13/1999 12:24:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Hello Henry, I hope you're well and enjoying spring green things. Like seasonal cycles we are bound to...man has attempted to qualify and measure anything that looks like a cycle. This fascination has extended into these numerical markets we watch. I've studied them with interest for years from Toynbee, Schumpeter, Wave Theories and Batra. This study...'and cycles' has created a mental oxymoron...an abiding interest and distaste. From this study I can determine 2 Truths [Laws]. 1- Cycles exist 2- When you've found one that works it changes... As an example: Ice out on our lake in NH occurs every year...OKAY April 19th is historically the date of "Ice Out," but it's never exact...it can happen one or two days either side. This year ice left on the 1st.....I lost a $1.00...<<chuckle>> So I agree with you completely I've found as you...cycles are dynamic and fluctuate leaving a trail of memories that approximate the future. I use them as broad filters. >>Anthropology, observation often changes the observed.<< Exactly So...I like that description Dollar I continue to believe that it will take some kind of significant event or a series of events to alter the course that has been set by world economies. The dollar will remain within the recent trading range and there is very little evidence that the dollar will become weaken any time soon. The best chance for this was the last years LTCapital event andcurriency devaluations. These latest trade sanctions of Clinton...is not much more then verbal politics. I understand Europe's distaste for hormone grown beef (I don't eat it myself - only organic) and this could put light pressure on the dollar if trade wars develop with Europe. Bonds >>I've been watching the US bond market with great curiosity. Inflation remains very quiet, real rates of return are high and there is little if any chance for near term FED action yet US bond yields have been rising inexorably. Why? << Wasn't this last jump in bonds from April at 5.4% to May 5.875% just a bounce on expectations about inflation CPI-PPI to be announced this week? Or have you seen significant reduction in overseas purchases? BTW...I'm long the bonds from 118' from yesterday. This is on paper and from technical signals...no cycle studies<<chuckle>> Chip

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