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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners
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To: CatLady who wrote (10255)5/13/1999 1:19:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (1) of 12039
 
Catlady,

I didn't really have a point, except to start a discussion.

The particular system I posted results for does much better on trendy stocks. In fact, I use DAHL as a filter to select a base from which to scan in the first place.

The other day after reading some comments online and in print ("never met a rich technician") I was spurred on to doing a simple comparison - TA-based trading against buy and hold. The results for an AOL or a CSCO are quite stunning.

On the other hand, the system test is pretty unrealistic. Assuming it was followed to the letter, after 9 years I'd be trading in lots of 100M$ worth of shares every few days. I think even CSCO might not make it easy for me to do that. But I bet I could negotiate great commission rates.

Also the test I did had margin turned on. Performance changes dramatically without it, although still very favourable to buy and hold.

When I see results like that, the thought that comes to my mind is that selection of what market to trade is of more importance than the system used to trade it.

Probably very true for the big names that I tested on. 9 years ago would I have picked AOL or Prodigy? CSCO or Gandalf?

Personally, except for a few issues which I do track fundamentals closely, I don't care. I'm not in it for 2343892734% gains. I'll take a small steady gain any day.
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