Brian,
I hope my earlier post didn't upset you. I own a bunch of IDX stock. So believe me, I'm on your side. I am, however, a realist. I would hate to see all of us overcome with "irrational exuberance","waves of optimism", or " unwarranted expectations."
You here CNBC often say that a company's earnings came in above or below street expectations. First Call is the street estimates. I. therefore have to assume they know what they are doing.
Brad Greene is correct when he says we don't know if the Oracle factor is included. My report shows the estimates were last verified on 2/11/97, the day after the Oracle announcement. Obviously, the brokers did not have time to immediately revise their numbers. However, the Oracle deal was not a super secret. The question was not if but when it would happen. What we all need to do is find out if revisions are coming. I am signed up for an immediate update report if one occurs. I will quickly post it.
One more word of caution. I am looking at a report I got last May. Then the 1996 projection was 0.07, actual came in at 0.04. Their 1997 projection then was 0.30,
now its 0.11. This means 0.40 for 1998 is by no means guaranteed.
Some thoughts on Oracle:
1. We need to know when the actual release will be. I doubt any changes to earnings estimates will be made until this is known.
2. In response to J. Saf. I have read the Dominick& Dominick report. The key here was that their $100M estimate was based on a unit price of $1000. Please correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the WSJ article on 2/10/97 say the unit cost was to be $500.
3. Another key is if this entire amount is in one year or spread across two or even three. Again when they start makes a difference.
4.Does anyone know if IDX has the manufacturering capacity to meet this size order should it all come in one year?
To All:
Where the rubber meets the road is profits. IDX, despite continuely doubly their net revenue, has not reported profits. (I know all about start up costs, we're past that now). I have no doubt they will eventually. The 64 million dollar question is when? |
