t2K - MSFT ran over 81, but was unable to hold in the face of a sell off in the market. This is not so unexpected. MSFT is not very strong, and will not be strong in the intermediate time frame. However, if the market is positive, MSFT *will* run up. Unless you can consistently predict where Nasdaq will be, it is better to be in MSFT for the up days, and keep lowering the cost of acquisition, so that you don't get hurt on the days when it sells off together with the market.
My TA reading of MSFT remains consistent, and I have not seen any data which would cause me to revise it at this point. The first significant support is at 74, and very strong support at 67 1/2. At the other end of this, MSFT can move up *very rapidly* on news - DOJ connected, or business initiative connected. The first wave would take it to under 89-90. If there is as second wave, it will run up to 95, take a very short breather, and move to 98-100. If MSFT settles (not likely), you will have an immediate run to 110. The thing about the upward move is the fact that if it occurs, it will occur so RAPIDLY, that it is too risky to be out of MSFT, IMO. However, it is important to protect oneself from the decline/dead money syndrome. For that reason, I would trade to lower my costs of acquisition to *at least* 74, or even 67 1/2.
Good luck!
Morgan |
