Hi Jack , Paul & Everybody: First of all let me convey my complete apology if I hurt any of your sentiments and feelings.
As an investor, First of all we should not be emotionally attached to any company. It appears some of us are.
When you look at the stock for the past 2 days the stock came out with a pisspoor earnings. Expected earningwas 0.01c profit but came out as 0.07c loss, a delta of $0.08c, with no good news attached to it. Within 48 hours the stock jumped by more than 10%. What does it tell you. It tells me that there is a manipulation going on and it is a suckers market. Plain and simple. Immediately you see a decent volume in March 10 option volume. We as an investing public need to be extremely careful when such thing is going on. Another observation, when you check the bid/ask size it is always 10/10 but the stock was moving violantly in 10% volatality. Does it make any sense to any of you guys?. It clearly tells me that the market maker is clearly playing a real funky game and please stay out of it. Unless the market improves and MM straighten their act together.
If any of you guys wanted to know the exact nature of market manipulation, please follow VRTY stock for 2 days constantly, it will give us volume of knowledge the trick & foul game MM plays.
Regarding possible merger, Oracle is not really doing well and sleeping with MS again, as I posted earlier, is dangerous. It is possible to stay in the market as a true technology provider and be neutral. Some 4 years ago there was a talk that VRTY will be acquired by Frame. Then Frame stock went to toilet and the deal was called off. That was the background. Past Wall Street Journal will substantiate that. Then Frame was acquired by ADBE. ADBE holds substantial stock of VRTY. Can you guys visualize the corporate soap opera.
My opinion is Search engine market is over crowded. VRTY is one of them and there is not much money left. Let us be realistic guys, when you enter a software licencing agreement, you normally will have a slab royalty agreements. Which will be as follows.
For Example:
First 1- 100,000 licence $1 per licence
100,001- say 500,000 say $0.50 per licencce
500,001- 1,000,000 say 0.25 or 0.10c per licence
>1,000,0001 it will be less than a nickle.
Above schedule is the normal thing for any licencing agreements. All I am saying is that if the volume goes up it doesnt bring much revenue. To all of the software techies, VRTY name will be publishized and you will see VRTY everywhere but that widespread use may not be translated into a good revenue.
Last Qtr result is a classic example which will stregthen my point. Last Qtr CSCO was a major customer. May be it could be using, in my example, 1- 700,000 licences of VRTY. Therefore the revenue was good.CSCO portion of VRTY revenue was substantial. My analysis was wrong earlier. I predicted CSCO business grew by 70 % compared to previous Qtr. But I am not clever to understand the mechanics of licencing agreement. This quarter though CSCO uses more of VRTY engine it is not translated into revenue for VRTY.
The question is what is the final analysis of VRTY. Currently this
stock is highly manipulated. Stay out of it if you can until MM realize that their sweet game will not work.
The thing that irritated me was that H&Q analyst predicted $0.05 loss and recommended it as a buy from strong buy. Within few minutes VRTY announced much worse result. Analyst was way off by 40%. Till to date he is not available for comment. I challenge to those guys. Come out of the woods and tell the investing public the reasoning for such recommendation so that you can do justice to the school you got your degree and professors who taught you Finance.
Paul I feel bad that my writing offended you or irritated you. English is not my native language . But please let us entertain our thought process and we all get educated during this process. Let this not be a pissing contest. Jack I agree with you when you say "do not take one expert's advise". I posted the same message in BOLD LETTERS in my earlier postings.
All I said was that the stock was over priced and gave my fair price. VRTY need to come out of their ivory tower and start to think of their shareholders who put their hard earned money into this stock. For everybody's information VRTY tumbled from $57 - $7 in a period of 1 1/2 years.
Any comments are always welcome.
Regards
Kumar. |
