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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Michael Friesen who wrote (1516)	5/13/1999 6:47:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Technically speaking, both the 10 yr. and the 30 yr. have to rise above 6% and stay above it for a quarter or so before one can confidently say that the downtrend has been broken. I don't trust the Utilities as a barometer for future interest rate direction because the yields are getting lame, some bellweather utilities are trading at very high multiples due to speculative bets being places on the current consolidation frenzy, and the stocks may soon cut payouts further regardless of the direction of interest rates should a few blue chip utilities be rewarded with ever higher multiples as their payout rates are cut and cash is conserved for corporate expansion, which is a practice that wall street is high on.

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