Here's one of MRCHGOPizza's recent posts on Yahoo. It's a good analysis. If he is right, and CHGO can make $0.09 for Q2 of 1999, then I would think CHGO is on track to make around $0.30-0.35 for the year, perhaps driving CHGO's stock price to the $3 range. Any comments?
I believe CHGO will achieve EPS of .09 for the 2nd qtr '99. I am predicting this number based upon the results of the 1Q'99 and 2Q'98 $1,200,000 1Q '99 Incremental Revenue
$ 196,000 Incremental Operating Profit
$ 195,000 Add: One-time Pre-open Charges Expensed in 1Q'99
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$ 301,000
$301,000/$1,200,000 = 33.3% In other words 33.3%* of the 1Q'99 incremental revenue was retained in operating profits.
My anticipated revenues for 2Q '99:
$ 840,000 Arcadia
$1,200,000 Woodland Hills
$ 415,000 BJ's Same Store Increases (7.0% Estimate**)
$ (38,000) Pietro's Same Store Sales Decreases (2.0% Estimate**)
$ 8,000 Net improvement in Other Income/Expense due to $1M
higher cash balances due to Assi deal***.
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$2,425,000 Revenue Increase for 2Q '99
Assumptions:
If Percentage of Incremental Revenue to be retained in operating profits for 2Q '99 was:
20% = $485,000 - EPS Impact .06
25% = $606,250 - EPS Impact .08
30% = $727,500 - EPS Impact .10
33.3% =$800,250 - EPS Impact .103
In the interest of CONSERVATISM using the 20% retention ratio the 2Q'99 results would look like this:
$10,250,198 Revenue +24% ['98 $7,825,198 + '99 $2,425,000*]
$ 663,360 Net Income +375% ['98 $178,360 + '99 $485,000*]
.09 Earnings Per Share
I believe my assumptions for 2q '99 to be reasonable based upon the results of both 1Q'99 and 2Q'98. Please give your comments.
MrCHGOPizza
P.S.*=indicate my estimates.
Pietro's is a positive contributor to cash flow which is critical to
???? (cut off). |
