ZO,
I somehow knew my post would draw you into this. First, we are not and cannot be short NN, nor am I trying to push NN down so I can get into it. My contacts in carriers anrd the rest of the industry absolutely do not support your continued insistence that NN is the market leader. You parrot words that I know come straight from inside NN, but after 6 disappointments in 9 quarters, the hockey stick projections wear very thin. NN claims to be the market leader in carrier ATM AND claims that its 36170 orders have grown 40-50% sequentially in each of the last 4 quarters, while reported WAN packet sales have grown 7-10% sequentially. I told you before - I do not believe, based upon NN's own reports to the SEC, that NN's marketing claims can be true. BA has a substantial FR network in the NYNEX territory based on the 36150 platform - it is not pulling out ASND gear.
I talk all the time with AT&T, which uses NN it its solutions business. NN's presence is miniscule next to CSCO and ASND, and the customer laughs if you ask whether NN has a chance at the core business. BTW alot of managed services business still traverses the T core ATM net, which is ASND.
BTW with all of the supply chain problems going on at NN, are you so certain NN will hit delivery dates on the 50GBPS switch - they've already been moved back twice.
NN shares three of its biggest customers with Nortel - BCE, DT and FT with NT passport on the edge and NN in the core. What happens now that the passport 15000 is out? NN better not miss its dates.
I have to run for a plane now so thats it on this topic. I sleep well at night knowing I do not have NN it the portfolio. Without take over speculation, it would be $20, and no one will buy it unless Terry is gone for good. |
