Thanks for posting the A/C numbers, they are a great service
to this thread.
I'm confused, you say that you expect growth to slow below
30 percent by the END of this quarter. Yet, if we examine
your numbers, the growth DURING this quarter is:
2,128,275 - 1,877,765 (end of Q1) = .251 M
percentage is (.251 M / 1.877 M) x 100% = 13.34% per 1/2 quarter
If this growth rate continues, one can mathematically project
the full quarter's growth as the square of 1.1334, or
29%
In other words, the quarterly growth rate is ALREADY
below 30%. So I'm confused, why do you predict 40%
for this quarter and 30% for NEXT quarter?
--
The reason that the precise growth rate seems important is that
the mathematics shows that the stock may seriously
decline for 30% per quarter growth, but it may hold value or
increase for 40% to 50% per quarter (sustained) growth.
Perhaps more important is the issue of WHY the growth is falling
off (if we knew why, then we can guess whether it will get worse
or not). The only relevant news item that I can find is an
assertion that the quarter immediately after holidays is when
people return their presents, so the fall off is a seasonal thing.
Another more dangerous possibility is that pent-up demand
(e.g. people that previously used the "misc.forsale" newsgroups
is now almost satisfied, and future growth will be limited
to market size increases. These increases may be tied to things
like how many computers/modems are sold each year,
which will grow but not at 40% to 50% per quarter.
I like the fact that the company is squeezing out some more profit
on small extras, but a cynical person might speculate that extras
are what a company focuses on when they can't get any more mileage
out of bigger ideas. Milking the extras may cause only a very
small one-time increase per extra, not the desired sustained phenomenal growth. Granted, there are a number of untapped
extras left, and if the A/C continues to decline, it will
be interesting to see how well the company can use extras to
fight the decline in A/C growth. |
