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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (7147)	5/14/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (2) of 78468

Re: NH and CSE as growth cyclicals. Mike, I consider these rather like the auto industry. The USA is pretty much a replacement market. Furthermore, I find the idea that NH is worth over $35 when it did not reach that at the recent peak of the business cycle hard to follow. Also, look at your own figures, if CSE is worth over $60 and NH $35, then for NH to pay perhaps 3 times its price for CSE (based on current market pricing), is way overpaying. My fear was and is that NH offers 3 for 1 for CSE, and NH is soon trading at $15, with worries about overpaying surfacing. I feared that anyway because of the huge short term advance. Have you forgotten your post that you would not consider selling any until it got to $18-19 (or something like that). My long experience is that when it gets to your short term target ALWAYS sell SOME.

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