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Technology Stocks : SDL, Inc. [Nasdaq: SDLI]
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To: jack bittner who wrote (234)5/14/1999 12:20:00 PM
From: Bulldozer  Read Replies (2) of 3951
 
jack - I've seen some of your posts on the JDS UNPH thread and didn't have time to respond. To make it short and sweet - no - there is virtually no chance of Asian commodity pricing or significant start-up competition. Why? - a four letter acronym - MTBF - Mean Time Before Failure. Do you have any idea how much R&D and testing companies like UNPH and SDLI go through to qualify their products? I don't care how smart you are or how cheap you can manufacture a photonic component, it takes YEARS and YEARS of testing and trials to assure the telcos your products are not going to fail (especially underseas). Faced between a choice to buy a component for half the cost that has little testing or is from a new company and one that is full cost and comes with the equivalent of 700 million hours of field tests(thats 80,000 years) - its no decision - the fully tested reliable component will win every time. It would take a start up two+ yrs just to qualify their first product! THAT IS THE BARRIER TO ENTRY.

Pat, regarding SDLI - I'm glad you received the warm fuzzies from mgmt. They are indeed executing well and are clearly #2 in the mkt. That is an enviable position given a GE or CSCO targets #1 or #2 in every mkt and they're pretty highly regarded. But they do need diversification and I'm sure they'll get there.

BD
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