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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 690.270.0%Dec 26 4:00 PM EST
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (13830)5/14/1999 12:38:00 PM
From: Jon Stept  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Heinz, cpi details... a closer look...

Hi Heinz,

What do you think of the CPI detail in regards to indicating an
across the board price increase due to the economy?

Personally, I don't see the evidence.

First, from the report, "About half of the April advance was
attributable to a record increase in gasoline prices.." I wonder how
much of this increase was price gouging and collusion on the part of
oil companies... I know here in California the oil companies are
being investigated for such tactics.

Second, smoking products took up a large part of the index. From the
report, "The acceleration in April reflects sharp upturns in the
indexes for apparel and for tobacco and smoking products, coupled
with a larger increase in shelter..."

From stats.bls.gov
(I edited the headings.)

1998 1999
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Apr. '99 12. Mos.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Housing .2 .3 .1 -.1 .1 .2 .4 3.0 2.2
Apparel .0 -.1 -.6 -1.1 -.2 -.3 1.5 4.0 -.4

Smoking price increases may not have an economic base, but may be due
to recent forced, legislated tax increases. I am not sure if that is
considered in their calculation.

Housing and apparel are indeed on the increase and to me are warning
signs. However, apparel much of which has a large foreign component,
may have increased due to the recent upturn in foreign economies and
not domestically based... requires further research.

Just my opinion.

Jon :)
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