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Technology Stocks : Internet Analysis - Discussion
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To: Joe E. who wrote (372)5/14/1999 4:28:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 419
 
Joe, perhaps one major point has not been clear: according to my data, the combined revenues for the 20 biggest retailers is currently $597.6BB. Let's assume that retail sales grow at roughly 5% per annum. That would imply that the top 20 retailers would weigh in with sales of $1,022BB in 11 years, and AMZN would have a 25% market share. And if hypergrowth extended beyond 11 years, which it must to justify today's valuations, we might very well be talking about a company with more than a 70% market share of total revenues as calculated using the top 20 firms.

Remember, we're talking about outfits like Walmart and Sears in this group. Companies that sell everything from clothes to washing machines.

My point is that the implied growth is completely inconsistent with what is possible given the current business models.

I define a mature company as one that will grow sales at a rate consistent with population growth. I think that Coke is a carbonated tulip. But at least Coke earns a profit.

TTFN,
CTC
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