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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 681.53+0.2%Dec 2 4:00 PM EST
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To: Yogizuna who wrote (13986)5/14/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: j g cordes  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Its the weekend Yogi so I'll squander some brain cells over a beer..

The problem needs to be looked at differently. There's an eroneous assumption that brilliant people are leading the market. Most often they're following, its just that they know when and how to speak well and when to keep quiet.

The smartest analysts, contrary to brilliant predicticators, most often put out an upgrade signal after a stock has made a spectacular run, and proclaim a downgrade when a stock hits bottom. If you look at the chart you'll see they missed 90% of the action, but they're smart and know that you'll associate their name with what's happened which is synonamous with what's going to happen.

This is why PBS will interview a Harvard or Yale historian about current events.. they have no idea really, but since they know history we accept they can predict the future. CNBC does a better job by dragging some crazy eyed finger flicking junkie from the trading pits, but they're usually so incoherent the advertisers want to send along a stylist... we're thinking subconsciously this jerk doesn't know anything or else he wouldn't look like he needs a job... but he's making money.

Bottom line in the pits is that the trend is your friend, which ever direction its moving in, whenever it decides to move. Stand in the way of a freight train and you loose ground quickly.

You're absolutly right that being smart and being bright are two different light bulbs.
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