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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corp: Digital Storage
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To: FIFO_kid2 who wrote (2048)3/9/1997 2:28:00 AM
From: FIFO_kid2   of 3256
 
My thoughts: Although, I continue to hold a portion of one of my big winners in 1996 as each day passes I believe that Ampex will less likely make one dime from KM. The rosy scenario we all have forseen is starting to wane. 1)The KM agreement with Maxtor seems uncommittal and was made as a last ditch effort for the struggling hard drive manufacturer. 2)The SEC filing that Bramson made to intend to sell about 25% of his stake (although he did not sell them - that action inspires less confidence in his convictions). 3) Sales on existing products are flat. 4) Possible new competition from Terastor. 5) AXCs failure to capitalize the extent of their patent portfolio. The reasons that keep me in AXC: 1) Margins from operations are rising. 2) The potential growth of video on demand and the possible orders of DST. 3) Mitsubishi lawsuit and royalties.4) Ampex still has options. My reasons for staying in AXC are obviously less compelling. Optimistically, AXCs potential without KM and excellent DST growth is probably at the old highs of $15. The reason I say the potential is so low is the lost credibility AXC will have on the KM fiasco. It will also be dead money until things become more clear. Currently, I believe there is more potential gains in picking the winners from the growth in PCS. For those who are keeping the faith, I will happily pay much much more for AXC when KM is licensed by the major manufacturers of hard drives and has a concrete deal. I would also get a clarification of Bramsons's intentions of his Jan 10, 1997 filing at the annual meeting.
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