Well, Ampex has been a tough situation. Yes, I am a holder, and though I made substantial profits in Dec, I also loaded back up again and I am losing...
Though I have not done any intensive technical analysis, it's chart is pretty disturbing. The past three months have seen erosion, attempted rally and decay below the previous low. This combined with its 60%+ decline last summer, and you don't have a pretty picture. The expected news that was releaseed in December was good, but not good enough. Volume on the stock dropped off in days (yes I know this is easier to say after the fact) and should have pushed me out.
While I seriously doubt Ampex is going to go to $0, I certainly would not be surprised to see it hit the $4-5 range. Ampex is a real company with real technology; it is not the bs we have seen with a large number of supposed technology companiers (Internet companies in general and DNA for example). Ampex has been in business a long time.
I would tend to agree with another posting that Ampex is a long term buy, but not something (even at this point) to consider buying on margin unless you have reserve to meet a call. Though my intuition says Ampex is a $40+ stock within 3 years, the reality tells me don't buy any more unless a sustained move (and hold for at least a week or two) to $8.50. It's better to have a Stop order than rushing into something that is likely to fall further. If it there is real news and real potential to push the stock, your stop is executed and your back in the game. (And if it is a $40 contender, I think you can forget about worrying about if you bought at $6.50 or $8.50 something)
In my opinion, the only possible positives in the near term are going to be: a NASDAQ listing (something that is not going to happen), publicized insider buying in one of the more respectable financial rags, or increased brokerage coverage. Certainly, earnings are not going to cause anything exciting, even if is more litigation money (which may have a temporary positive effect before declining again).
If you can afford to hold, hold.... (averaging down is asking for trouble if your already margined)
Good luck to us all on this one..........
PS. If anyone has recent short interest on this and/or insider trade info, it would be nice to read.... |
