Some Fatt thoughts on GOCA now, past, and future! READ!
Ok! Let me start off by posting JBRUCE's thoughts from the RB Board-
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With wagering revenues of about $10 million in the first quarter, I'd estimate GOCA's "win" at about $300,000 for 1Q. This, of course, is GROSS income, and the expenses of running the business have to come out of that. Also, there might be a little more from the restaurant, and a few bucks from GOCA's other ventures.
It's quite possible that GOCA could show a tiny profit in 1Q, though "expectations" are for a small loss. Either would compare nicely to 1998, since it would show that the company has achieved, or is on the edge of, profitability and, more important, continues to improve its results significantly.
While $161,000 doesn't seem like much, that's for one month. Over a year that would amount to $50 million in wagering revenues, and $2 million of "win", and that's without projecting any more growth or considering any profit from the restaurant. (The company expects LOTS better 1999 results!) Even after deducting expenses, you have room for some very real earnings for the company.
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Very good thoughts! I agree with every word there. Now, let mE throw in some ideas.
April is TAX time. Do you think people are going to be gambling as much during this time when the people that WILL be gambling are the ones that have to write a check TO the gov't? I was surprised to see them this HIGH. I am very impressed!
Now, when you take the $4mill in Wagering revs and compare to LAST month, sure, they don't blow it away, but look at it this way. For the last however many quarters, they have been comparing to LAST month and putting out 80%+ over the previous month. I have asked them to stop doing this. I don't think that when they become fully-reporting that this is necessary. This creates short-term buying/selling/pressure and is exactly what we saw all the way up until Friday. I don't think they will be doing this anymore!
Another thing to think about is that the subscriber/gambler base is up 200%! That is very impressive, once again. Keep in mind they are advertising on Go2Net and probably other places.
When I typed in a wrong URL to the gocasino page, it took me to one of those "oops, can't find that page" and it showed some advertising banners. One I recall was UBID.com (subs of PCMALL). I find that very interesting, because this means that a LOT of people must be hitting the page in order for it to attract THEIR attention. Nice.
Now, to explain a few other issues, and the "net win" situation that is a little confusion, I will turn to the email I received this Morning from Mark.....(I had inquired about a few things)
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Matt,
Although the GoCasino revenue was down the net win was up over last month. Usually the net win is around 3% but this month it was around 4%. The $5.5 millon reported revenue last month was phenomenal. I mean a 79% increase in April over March is something we weren't even expecting. The $4 million we did this month was more in line with company expectations. If you look at the projected cashflows section we have in our business overview (we sent that about two weeks ago to you), it is in line with our expectations. From the beginning of the year, we projected a 20% increase each month in GoCasino revenues. We are not looking to make excuses, of course we would have loved to have seen higher revenues this month. But this is the way high growth internet companies function. That is why everybody reports quarterly, because true growth is seen quarter over quarter (or year over year) and not month over month (or day over day). When we start to report quarterly the monthly fluctuations will be eliminated and a steady growth of the share price will be witnessed. (FM edit: YES!)
At the moment, we do not even have a sportsbook, bingo etc. Once we start to offer these other areas, the revenues and net win will be even higher. The net win is even higher in a sportsbook around 6-8%. We have been looking at either acquiring a sportsbook or starting our own. There are bigger synergies to be had if we acquire an existing sportsbook with an existing customer base and revenues. This is how Mr. Huizenga of Republic Industries Inc. has built his company and has provided value to the shareholders of the company and this can be seen in the exponential increase in their stock price. (if you are not familiar with this company let me know - they own the Florida panthers etc.). He has built an empire simply on acquisitions by using his company's stock as currency.
I understand what you mean about followers vs. leaders. We are working very hard to increase shareholder value and keep shareholders happy so any suggestions are greatly appreciated. I will speak to the PR people about that. (FM edit: I asked to change the part in the PR about "following in the success of... to something about carving their own paths..etc.)
The interview by the beginning of the summer is fine ( how's June?). When we get closer to the interview date maybe you can start gathering questions from your club and then when we can answer them at the interview. (FM edit: I want to Interview Ian Smith to add some dazzle and inform the shareholders and myself that watch this Club)
Mark
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I thought that was a very good followup in my opinion. He took the time to go into detail to explain everything. I like the idea of adding sports betting possibly. Maybe they could buy ISWI (EZ's pick!) LOL
Overall, I am very impressed with my investment in GOCA. I think we have a mammoth building here. They have so much going for them. Plus, we have no idea what the 1Q is going to be like. All we have seen is Casino numbers. Do I need to list from the Investor's packet everything else they own? They have some nice projections in there. Plus, they will be opening 2 other Casinos soon. (per Investor's Packet)
I think there is a lot to come that we all can't even forsee. I am very excited to see what will be hitting the wires for the next few months. I am also highly anticpating getting reporting status and getting full NASDAQ during the summer (per interview on newswire.ca)
Some things to keep in mind:
*Indexus.com Price Engine
*2 new casinos
*Languages on the web page- International markets have yet to be targeted yet...Heck, they are just now starting to do some REAL advertising.
*Huge assets added to the bottom line from the original $2.9 mill in assets...I am guessing like around $10 mill with Rest and other stuff...cash?
*SEC status filings
*1Q
*Maybe now, just a steady increase! These whacko XXX% increases were making MMs and short-termers rich! I hope they stop releasing the quarterly numbers...I bet they do--THEY HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT! LOL
Well, I have so much more to say, but my mind is going faster than my poor bald fingers can type and I am forgetting all the great stuff...
So, I'll post it as I can remember or people ask me! (Also, have you noticed the new people slowly coming into the stock and asking questions?)
I have no idea what will happen Monday...It doesn't bother me, because anything I can get near $2 (if it ever gets that low again) it like a no-brainer for me! As for Friday, the whole small-cap/OTC market got crushed and along with the rest...and GOCA managed to gain 10%....Looks optimistic for Monday, IMO!
Wheww...that was a lot!
FM
To see the report on GOCA, go to the new URL!
clubfatt.com <---Finally! |
