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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising
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To: Bob Swift who wrote (2782)5/15/1999 7:55:00 PM
From: Bob Swift  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
To Jim_PD over at Yahoo.

You are correct in that the projected sale for Nori was 600 million in 2006. That is a projection, the 100 millions give and take of current market is closer to 100 than 600.

Regarding the 6% versus 4%, I remember the figure is more like 5% to start with and goes up with time. I simply took an average of the percentage expected in the few years before the old Claritin patent expires. $4 a share is the income before everything else for this one drug. Obviously there will be other income from other drugs and expenses to be taken into account to arrive at a NET INCOME PER SHARE.

All this is semantic, the point being that SEPR is not going down the drain. DCL and Prozac are so important to SGP and LLY respectively they will at the least give the isomers a try to see if they can keep the market. Thus SEPR can reasonably expect income from these two sources before the old patents expire. How the market will be divided after that is anyone's guess but no one should underestimate the marketing muscle of these two giants.

I would also like to venture that if SEPR has to compete with generics on any drug (including Nori), it is at an advantage and could take over the whole market if it sells its purer drugs at the same generic price. We then have a super Mylan or IVAX with potential for home run such as Propulsid or their NCEs.

Good luck with your investment.
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