Mark -
all other things equal, I think USWB's action on Friday is a good signal of short term strength. there was alot of selling from the 40's down to the bottom in the low 20's and it has bounced up, so i think it's pretty firm in the mid 20's with potential for surges up to 30.
i feel pretty good as a long right now, but based on it's history of surges on news and short squeezes, and rapid declines on insider and general selling, i am ready to pull the sell trigger rapidly. we should be due for some type of positive announcement to get everybody charged up - in other words a selling opportunity.
long term, though, it doesn't take a genius to scan the insider selling history of this stock to know there will be no shortage of shares for sale on strength. there has been consistent insider selling in this stock since it came public, and i can't think of any reasons that this will not continue. combine that with the general float increase for acquisitions, employee options, and the most important force for the long term health of this stock is SUPPLY, SUPPLY, SUPPLY.
on the demand side, it's also important to know that there continue to be steady stream of internet related IPO's hitting the market. this will continue. it will be a natural corrective force to reduce the internet hype premium of many companies including USWB.
in addition to supply concerns, the real pressure on USWB multiples will come when acquisition related growth slows and investors begin to concentrate on the fundamentals. right now, it is still a story of unlimited potential for many investors - lots of companies go through this honeymoon - if you can figure out when it's going to end, you can make alot of $. also if you know when the insiders are blacked out from selling that can be a more safe period to hold.
thoughts off the cuff,
rick. |
