Mike, Ralph, Bill,
Count Fleet, Whirlaway, Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed...... Charismatic....Ughhhh! I hope not. (g)
Not to take anything away from Charismatic, he ran a fine race today and verified his Derby form. But this is NOT a triple crown quality colt. Jut a very good one.
He was the beneficiary of a bumper car roller Derby two weeks ago when many of the contenders had terrible trips. And in the Preakness a three way suicide speed duel developed that contained two of the major contenders in Vicar and Cat Thief (2 and 3 wide).
The Pimlico track was supposedly heavily biased towards speed on the rail. When that happens, competent riders often change strategies and pursue an advantageous position. But too many smart jocks can cause a problem. And it did for Cat Thief and Vicar who blazed away in a pace that was way out of line with the final time in trying to secure position. Vicar was 3 wide meaning that he not only was committing suicide, but doing it on the bad part of the track.
The elimination of two contenders accompanied by the physical problems of the fillie, left the 1 -2 finishers in the Derby to battle it out again. This time Charismatic left little doubt and finished extremely well. I was impressed.
I suspect that the final time speed figure for this race will again be well below the average figure for Triple Crown races.
I did not get a bet in, but I would have bet on Vicar at that price. I am still interested in following this horse. He now has back to back bad trips and his form appears like he's a shot horse. If he shows up in a minor stake somewhere you might get a decent price on a horse who is still only a handful of lengths worse than the best ones.
I was at a party for two year olds (a friend's daughter) during the race. I had a brief discussion with about 5 of them while they were throwing ice cream at me and pulling my beard. They said I shouldn't take 5.9% on bonds and should let you shoot me instead . After that party I would welcome it. (bg)
Wayne |
