If upturn is here, I think LSI should beat the $1.89 for 2000. My guess is also that 2001 may be the last year for upturn, hence my current plan to sell around X'mas 2000 or shortly there afters.
However, there might be a couple of factors that may keep this thing alive for another year after 2001. First is global economy. If Asia, China, & Japan all recovers by then, this may go on longer. I am pretty sure that Asia & China will, Japan is the question mark.
Secondly, the 0.12um may not come up as fast as we think. Semi guys still are not making money yet. I don't see them making real money until 2000. Hopefully the 0.12um will get delayed a little bit.
If 2001 is last year, I just don't see LSI breaking $100 before then. Just too hard to generate the earnings with only 3 years of 20% to 25% sales growth per year. But if the upturn continues for another year, my guess is we should see over $100 by end of 2001.
At this time point, I think it's way too early to tell. But discussing the matter before hand is good - once we get there, I know my greed will cloud my thinking. Once we get past 2000, I think Dipy's target setting approach is good. I don't buy into his selling only 6 months into the upturn, however. To me that's not investing long term, just finding a way to 'average' out returns.
patrick |
