Zeev,
If I may, I believe I see in your questioning of Carl, and in his answers, the heart of the situation as perceived by a number of “speculators” in AXC on this board and elsewhere. This position is that at this time, given what we know about AXC, the company cannot make it. That is not to say that the company will not make it. It is to say that some major new development is necessary for the unfolding picture to make sense.
The likely possibilities that have been discussed at length are (in order of my perception of likelihood and value in terms of increased stock price): a strategic alliance with a deep pocket player (numerous ways this could happen include a big player taking a stake in AXC, or a joint venture); sale of equity (stock, convertible preferred, rights…?); or an IPO of one of the subs (if at all the one that looks like it is being groomed for such a thing is TVotW.) (The position here is that there is no time to sufficiently mature one of the subs for an IPO of the value necessary to solve the major funding problems that face AXC.)
What makes the odds favor a bet on AXC is confidence that management recognizes the problem, knows what is needed to be done, is doing and is going to do what is needed, and that that will result in a critical mass in the very near future that will propel the stock price into a benevolent upward cycle that will enable the fulfillment of the vision.
This position holds that if no “major” development is forthcoming within the immediate near future, the pace of development in the Internet (and web broadcasting in particular) will overrun the player who tries a straight-line roll-out.
Net? This is not a stock for the conservative investor (one looking for the existing hidden value) at this time. This is a stock for those able to risk a portion of their wealth on a long shot with high odds.
What you see in the play between those looking at AXC from this point of view and those attempting to establish value is a bull and bear tug of war within the bull camp. This explains the price action since December 1998. Every new announcement is seen as a sufficient step in the right direction by the value investors, while those looking for the major play see it as one step closer to the cliff without the major capital infusion necessary to keep the ball rolling.
Finally, I think it is a mistake to think that the game being played out here is not an attempt to become what is being called here an "Internut" stock. A rational view of what is happening in the market today is telling all the major money people that bad money is chasing out good and that if one does not get some of that bad money into ones pocket, one is loosing wealth relative to the rest of the crowd every day. Another word for that is inflation. There isn't one big player out there today that isn't going for the buck.com.
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