Don, just one comment on your updates re: new highs/new lows
You mention that new lows picked up significantly. Sure, I buy that as the figures don't lie. However, really, what does that mean?
IMHO, that simply means that there are about 70 stocks out there that basically suck and shouldn't be listed in the first place. When you look at them, many are derivative shares, such as preferred shares, etc. They are easily manipulated by the shorts that attempt to show the market is weakening.
For example, remember how just a few months ago, the transports were weak and everyone said how weak the market is since the transports, per Dow Theory, have to confirm any upleg on the Dow? IMHO, the transports were targetted by the shorts precisely to discourage those that follow Dow theory and to give more FUD to the idiots on CNBC to scare the little guy. All the while, the major players were buying the Dow stocks, i.e. cyclicals knowing full well that they would soon be stopping the crap going on with the transports and start buying them.
With the Dow up 1000 points or more in the last month, and the transports confirming, obviously this is no longer an issue.
IMHO, I think the same thing is going on with new highs and lows. I really think they are manipulated. As for the new highs not hitting new highs, that I can understand. If 90% of stocks are at 80-90% of their highs, then the market can still be strong. New highs as a technical indicator is way overblown.
Now, with that said,I am not as prescient as you are regarding market direction and I really appreciate your updates. They are very helpful.
Just trying to add fuel to the discussion. |
