hi Chucky99,
I have no problem with the distribution partner being
Glaxo.
You mentioned numbers though, and I like numbers.
When you say $20, do you mean right after the announcement
of the deal and FDA approval? I think that may be a bit
high unless they change the name 'Pennsaid' quickly to 'E-Commerce'
and then announce the approval.
Just kidding. Welcome to the thread. Nice timing.
Let me share some of my numbers with you (a new victim),
To achieve a true breakeven ($0 eps), the manufacturing facilities
need to produce 2,500 tubes of Pennsaid a day based on 260 days
and a gross margin (after all direct costs) of $20 a tube.
The price currently is $60 for a month (I assume that's one tube)
and I'm assuming Dimethaid sells to the distributor at $30.
I'm probably low on manufacturing costs and low on the split
(Dimethaid does a little better).
This is based on them manufacturing and selling to the big X who
then picks up marketing and distribution costs. Not a big ad
campaign budget out of that - but then thats only assuming Pennsaid
gets 55,000 of the 5,500,000 patient market and this is only for
purposes of earnings per share breakeven analysis. Europe of
course is a separate story.
So basically 1% market penetration is good enough for eps breakeven
as long as they can pump out 2,500 of those little darlings a day.
I have an e-mail into Peter on capacity and expansion capabilities.
Obviously I'm looking for a considerably higher number.
Just to bore you to death, I'm really looking forward to this long
weekend. I'm getting away early on Friday and this time I've
packed something early for the weekend. A calculator. |
