NW: I don't think inflation is a problem. A little bit of inflation is good both for the economy and for the market. It's better than deflation which everyone was exercised about not so long ago. Stocks have done very well in inflationary environments.
I do not think Greenspan will alarm the market. He will note inflationary pressures in oil (which lead to pressures in transport) and will say the Fed will be watchful. This will be interpreted to mean that there is a slight bias to tightening in the future if an inflationary trend appears. But we knew that anyway.
I think the recent falls in the market arise from an overvaluation, especially of the large caps, and scare stories about inflation is merely the excuse to have a purge. I think the purge could go a lot further, if not on this attempt, then on others later.
In the very short-term, there is a chance that after Greenspan speaks, there will be a relief rally, followed by further consolidation.
COMPAQ should hold $22/23, if things get bad, and hopefully $24/25 if they are just half bad. I still think CPQ needs to go to $27/28 and back a couple of times,,and I do expect or or two within the next month. |
