>Pardon me for commenting
i was just trying to avoid the "usual" responses, a waste of everyone's time. it was in no way meant to be a closed discussion -- you make some excellent points and i'm grateful that you took the time to make them.
do you think that the market is as sophisticated as your #1 makes it out to be? i don't know, maybe it is, maybe it's the big guys (who supposedly know their stuff) who drive it, but on the other hand, i think very few of the small investors understand that a raise in interest rates is actually good for the market. read this and other threads, and you will see "experienced" investors having the same difficulty.
#2, so don't you think that the "yen carry trade" becoming more lucrative would make us stocks less lucrative? heck, if you're going to send your money to the us, might as well go for the sure deal..
#3, good point. that's kinda what i suspected, but i wondered if it was true even with all the new plants they are building.
thanks for a thought-provoking post.
ps-- the interest rate disparity between us and japan is a fascinating bit of proof about how the economy (or the market for capital) still isn't truly "global"... such differences would get the heck arbitraged out of them if our economy truly was "global"... btw, i once heard that after you adjust for not-insignificant inflation, japan actually has a negative interest rate. |
